The end of every year naturally leads into the next, but it also marks the start of a very important time in Hollywood: awards season. The critics have chimed in with their top 10 picks throughout December, and now the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences members will chime in with their picks for the best of the best in 2015. The nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 15, but what’s the fun of just waiting for the Academy to tell us what is right? While we wait for theOscarnominations to roll in, we have pored over all of this year’s critical darlings, and, through a highly-scientific method (i.e. educated guessing), we’re presenting our predictions for the88th Annual Academy Awardnominations and winners.
Now, even the most esteemed of pundits aren’t usually 100% correct. There isn’t actually any “highly-scientific method” of predicting the nominees. Every year there are surprises, but even those who attempt to predict the surprises get surprised themselves. This isn’t an exact science, but it sure is fun to speculate about beforehand… and then complain about afterwards. Still, there are several things to take into consideration, especially considering what kinds of movies the Academy typically favor… and what movies they don’t.
Movies based on true stories are generally surefire Oscar bait, as far as nominations go, although there are certainly no guarantees. Last year, four of the nineBest Picturenominees were based on true stories (American Sniper,Selma,The Imitation GameandThe Theory of Everything), but an original movie about a washed up movie star mounting a Broadway comeback (Birdman) wound up taking home Best Picture. This year, there will be plenty of movies based on a true story to choose from, likeMad Max: Fury Road. OK, I’m kidding, but that blockbuster does provide a nice segue.
On its surface, Mad Max: Fury Road doesn’t look like your typical Oscar movie, but we reported in October that Warner Bros. was planning to mount an Oscar campaign for this summer blockbuster. As it turns out, that campaign actually paid dividends, as it was named the best movie of the year by the National Board of Review, the first Oscar season indicator, and it has been raking in awards and nominations since then, including aGolden Globenod for Best Picture - Drama. Can this be the year that a big-budget movie breaks through and takes the top prize? The last movie of that ilk to win Best Picture wasThe Lord of The Rings: The Return of The Kingback in 2003, so perhaps the blockbuster is overdue.
It’s also quite possible that this will be the first year that a Netflix original movie gets some Oscar love withThe Ridiculous 6… sorry, I just couldn’t help myself.Beasts of No Nation, thestreaming service’s first original narrative movie, has been getting rave reviews since debuting in October, withIdris Elbagetting some serious Oscar buzz for his performance. Netflix has earned Oscar nominations in back to back years for documentariesThe SquareandVirunga, but its foray into original narrative movies could change the Oscar landscape once again. Later this year, Netflix will debutWar MachinestarringBrad Pitt, which could very well be in the Oscar hunt next year.
On the acting side, there are plenty of worthy picks in all four categories (Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress), but only a handful of “locks.” But, there are also just as many dark horse candidates as there are front-runners. WhileBrie Larsonis considered by most to get a nomination for the indie dramaRoom, but some think that her nine-year-old co-starJacob Tremblaycould be a surprise nominee for Best Supporting Actor. Also, while none of the actors fromStraight Outta Comptonhave been garnering any serious awards buzz, the entire cast was nominated for a SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that it’s really anybody’s guess who will be nominated and who won’t, but, below, you’ll find our guesses.
Below you’ll find our picks for all of the major categories, along with a few potential sleeper picks thrown in to boot. Now, these aren’t, per se, our personal picks, because if that was the case, you’d probably findMad Max: Fury Roadgetting every nominee for every category, including Best Documentary, Best Animated Feature and Best Live-Action Short Film, just because. No, these picks are based on the intangible amount of “buzz” swirling around each category, and represent our best educated guesses as to what the esteemed members of the Academy may choose for the nominees and winners. So, without further ado, take a look at our predictions for the 2016 Oscar nominations and winners.
25BEST PICTURE
Ever since expanding the Best Picture field to a possible 10 nominees instead of five, the Academy has only picked 10 nominees twice, in the first two years of this new rule, in 2010 and 2011. This would be the perfect year to fill out the field completely, but it also sheds light on an intriguing development. If these are, in fact, the 10 nominees,Mad Max: Fury Roadwill be the only “original” movie in the bunch… and even that movie is set in a previously-established universe with a new rendition of a well-known character.Straight Outta ComptonandSpotlightaren’t technically adapted from any source material, but they are both based on true stories, while all of the other potential nominees are adaptations. While this doesn’t necessarily have any bearing on any of these movies' chances, it’s some interesting food for thought.Sleeper Picks:Inside Out,Sicario,The Hateful Eight,Ex Machina,The Danish Girl.
24BEST DIRECTOR
Most pundits have these five filmmakers at the very top of their lists, and it’s hard to blame them.Adam McKaytook an incredibly complex subject and made it comprehensible to the moviegoing public,George Millerdelivered some of the most cinematic and gorgeous action set pieces in recent history,Ridley Scottshowed us what it would truly be like to be trapped on Mars, Golden Globe winnerAlejandro González Iñárritushowcased the brutal 1800s frontier landscape in thrilling ways, andThomas McCarthybrought a remarkable story to the big screen. It would honestly be surprising to see any of these picks get snubbed, but hey, it’s theOscars. Strange things happen all the time. Still, it seems highly unlikely that any upset picks could sneak in, but that’s not to say there aren’t plenty of worth candidates.Sleeper Picks:Steven Spielberg-Bridge of Spies,Denis Villeneuve-Sicario,F. Gary Gray-Straight Outta Compton,Quentin Tarantino-The Hateful Eight, Lenny Abrahamson -Room.
23BEST ACTOR
The Best Actor field continues the trend of projects based on true stories leading the way in Oscar nods this year, with four out of these five roles based on actual people, all exceptThe Martian’s Mark Watney (Matt Damon). BothMatt DamonandLeonardo DiCapriotook home Golden Globes for their performances on Sunday night, although it’s still laughable that they putThe Martianin the “comedy” category. Still, like most of this year’s top races, there isn’t a surefire front runner, but many are wondering ifLeonardo DiCapriocan finally break through and win his first Oscar. He’s been nominate four times before but never won, and many felt he was snubbed from being nominated several other times as well, including his performances inTitanic,Gangs of New York,The DepartedandInception, all of which were nominated for Best Picture. In a year without a true front runner, this could be Leo’s time to finally take home that little gold man.Sleeper Picks:Johnny Depp-Black Mass,Michael B. Jordan-Creed,Tom Hanks-Bridge of Spies,Will Smith-Concussion,Ian McKellen-Mr. Holmes.
22BEST ACTRESS
After winning the Golden Globe for Best Actress,RoomstarBrie Larsonis most likely the front runner in this race, after many thoughtCate Blanchettwould run away with her third Oscar for her role inCarol. If these predictions turn out to be true, it will also mark the first Oscar nominations forCharlotte Rampling(in a 50 year career),Brie LarsonandAlicia Vikander. IfSaoirse Ronanwins, she will be just the second youngest actress ever to win the award at 21 years of age, just a few months behind Marlee Matlin when she won in 1987 for Children of a Lesser God. As of now, it seems to be a two-woman race betweenBrie LarsonandCate Blanchett.Sleeper Picks:Jennifer Lawrence-Joy,Rooney Mara-Carol,Emily Blunt-Sicario,Sarah Silverman-I Smile Back,Helen Mirren-Woman in Gold.
21BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
DuringBrie Larson’s acceptance speech for her Golden Globe award last night, she thanked herRoomco-starJacob Tremblayand said she shared her award with him.Jacob Tremblayis one of my surprise nominations, with many prognosticators pickingSicario’sBenicio Del Toroor theSpotlightduo ofMark RuffaloorMichael Keatonahead of him. The problem with ensembles likeSpotlight, or evenThe Big Short, is even at the nominations stage, movies with multiple nominees often split the votes, leading to other candidates prevailing. I’m guessing this is what could allow nine-year-oldJacob Tremblayto be the second youngest nominee in the category ever (behind eight-year-old Kramer vs. Kramer star Justin Henry), but even if he does get the nomination, he’s going up against a slew of veteran contenders.Mark RylanceandSylvester Stalloneare most likely the top two candidates thus far, but Sly may have a slight edge after his Golden Globe win.Sleeper Picks:Mark Ruffalo-Spotlight,Michael Keaton-Spotlight,Benicio Del Toro-Sicario,Michael Shannon-99 Homes,Paul Dano-Love & Mercy.
20BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
If these picks turn out to be true, along with the Best Actress nods, thenAlicia Vikanderwill be the first actor or actress sinceCate Blanchettin 2007 (I’m Not There,Elizabeth: The Golden Age) to score two acting nominations in the same year. This rare feat has only happened 10 times before, but since both categories are highly-competitive, we’ll have to wait and see how this race shakes out. Even thoughKate Winsletwon the Golden Globe forSteve Jobs, there isn’t necessarily a true front runner for Best Supporting Actress, and it’s truly anyone’s award to win, so to speak. IfAlicia Vikanderdoes manage to get nominated and actually win both awards, she would be the first to ever pull off this feat, and in a year like this, it seems that truly anything can happen.Sleeper Picks:Jane Fonda-Youth,Rachel McAdams-Spotlight,Julie Walters-Brooklyn,Elizabeth Banks-Love & Mercy.
19BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This category may be one of the only ones with a true front runner,Aaron Sorkin, who is poised to take home his second Adapted Screenplay Oscar forSteve Jobs, after winning the award five years ago forThe Social Network. The screenplay awards are often seen as “consolation prizes” for films who won’t win Best Picture, and, ironically,Steve Jobsis the only projected nominee that most likely won’t be up for Best Picture. Still,Aaron Sorkin’s scripts have become the stuff of legend, and I don’t see him having any trouble winning once again in this category.Sleeper Picks:Brooklyn-Nick Hornby,Trumbo- John McNamara,The Revenant-Alejandro González Iñárritu,Mark L. Smith,Anomalisa-Charlie Kaufman,The Danish Girl- Lucinda Coxon.
18BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Unlike the Adapted category, the Best Original Screenplay category doesn’t have a front runner, and cases could easily be made for any one of these scripts to take home the award.Inside Outwill also surely be in contention for Best Animated Feature, so that may impact the film’s hopes for a Best Original Screenplay win, but at this point, it’s anybody’s game. Ironically, bothPete DocterandThomas McCarthywere both nominated for co-writing Pixar’sUp, and now they’re competing against each other in the same category. IfQuentin Tarantinowins, it would be his third Oscar in the category, tying him for the most wins ever withWoody Allen.Sleeper Picks:Bridge of Spies-Matthew Charman,Ethan Coen,Joel Coen,Sicario- Taylor Sheridan,Trainwreck-Amy Schumer,Joy-Annie Mumolo,David O. Russell,Love & Mercy- Michael A. Lerner,Oren Moverman.
17BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
This category is packed full of former Oscar nominees and winners, in would could be the most contested race of the year. Robert Richardson could have the edge here, with his use of 70mm photography onThe Hateful Eight, the first time a film was shot in that format in nearly 50 years, but don’t count out any of these other candidates as well. Then again, Richardson wasn’t honored by American Society of Cinematographers this year, so it’s possible he may not be nominated either. The Oscar voters could have their work cut out for them in this category, that’s for certain.Sleeper Picks:Bridge of Spies- Janusz Kaminski,The Martian- Dariusz Wolski,Steve Jobs- Alwin H. Kulcher,Room- Danny Cohen, Son of Saul - Matyas Erdely.
16BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Composing legend Ennio Morricone won his first major American award this weekend by taking home theGolden Globefor his work onThe Hateful Eight. All of these potential nominees are just as esteemed as the Golden Globe winner, and this is truly another race where it could be anyone’s game. The Academy does love to hand out “legacy” awards for esteemed artists who have never received an Oscar before, and Ennio is certainly deserving of a little gold man, after five nominations and no wins. Could this be his year? We’ll have to wait until February 28 to find out for sure.Sleeper Picks:Inside Out- Michael Giacchino,Carol- Carter Burwell,Sicario- Jóhann Jóhannsson,Brooklyn- Michael Brook,The 33- James Horner.
