Depending on who you ask, the controversy surroundingEmilia Pérezis either the worst-timed bad luck imaginable or a welcome dose of karma. The last week has clearly been a nightmare for the film’s cast and crew, and especially for the Netflix campaign team, who’ve been aggressively pushing for the company’s first Best Picture win. What should’ve been a cause for celebration, as Karla Sofía Gascón became thefirst openly transgender actressto be nominated for an Oscar, has tragically been overshadowed by her problematic past.

On the other hand, it’s been clear since at least the Golden Globes that outside of the industry, few people seem to actually likeEmilia Pérez. Even putting aside Gascón,the movie has been criticized by Mexican viewers for its cultural misrepresentation and use of stereotypes, while LGBTQ+ viewers have lambasted it for its outdated views. As recently as two weeks ago,Emilia Pérezlooked to have a good chance of winning Best Picture, but all of these controversies have put a bump in that road. But are its Oscar chances completely dead?

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Emilia Perez

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How Does the ‘Emilia Pérez’ Controversy Compare to Past Contenders?

In total fairness,Emilia Pérezis far from the only controversial Best Picture contender. In 2011,Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which received poor reviews and widespread criticism for its use of the 9/11 attacks as a cheap way to elicit sympathy from viewers, inexplicably got nominated. The 2005 ceremony sawBrokeback Mountainlose the top prize toCrashin an upset (it’s telling that homophobic members in the Academy refused to watch the former film), and it’s still regarded as maybe themost infamous moment in the ceremony’s history.

However, the two most controversial contenders in recent memory were both released in 2018.Bohemian Rhapsody, a biopic about Queen lead singer Freddie Mercury (Rami Malek), became a surprise box office hit despite mixed reviews, ultimately landing in the Best Picture race. However, virtually the second it was nominated, the backlash grew to a fever pitch, as many LGBTQ+ activists criticized the film for watering down Mercury’s sexuality and for arguably painting his contracting of AIDS as a consequence of his lifestyle. Making matters worse was the resurfacing of long-brewing accusations of sexual abuse against director Bryan Singer.

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The other contender, which ended up winning the top prize, wasGreen Book, inspired by the true-life interracial friendship between jazz pianist Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali) and his driver Frank Vallelonga (Viggo Mortensen). While the film received mostly positive reviews from critics,a notable few accused it of engaging in white-savior fantasy tropes and painting racism as a problem brought about by interpersonal relationships rather than systemic factors(a similar criticism thatCrashreceived).

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Things only got more heated when co-writer Nick Vallelonga was revealed to have previously asserted Donald Trump’s baseless claim that Muslims cheered the fall of the World Trade Center (made more awkward since Ali himself is Muslim). Nor did it help when Don Shirley’s real-life relatives voiced their disapproval of the film and accused it of misrepresenting his life.

Does ‘Emilia Pérez’ Still Have a Shot at Oscar Glory?

Obviously,the controversies faced byGreen BookandBohemian Rhapsodydidn’t fully derail their awards chances. The former,even with all the backlash, ended up winning Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, thus sending Nick Vallelonga home with more competitive Oscar wins than Spike Lee. While the resurfacing of Bryan Singer’s past played a part in costingBohemian Rhapsodythe top prize, the campaign pivoted away from the director and still walked away with the most wins of the night, most notably Best Actor for Malek.

However,Emilia Pérez’s controversies have a much higher profile than those of either of those films. In hindsight, the scandalsGreen Bookfaced only rarely penetrated beyond social media, and since so much of the Academy voting bloc lives in a bubble, they were quickly forgotten. TheEmilia Pérezteam is clearly attempting to pivot away from Gascón the wayBohemian Rhapsodydid with Singer. However, Singer was infamously fired from that film a few weeks before filming ended, so the campaign was more easily able to convince voters to look past him.

Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark

‘Emilia Pérez’ Director Distances Himself From Karla Sofía Gascón

Jaques Audiard distances himself from Karla Sofía Gascón after past offensive comments.

It’s a whole other ballgame to ask people to look past the title character inEmilia Pérez. The hot water that Gascón’s found herself in doesn’t seem likely to subside anytime soon, asco-star Zoe Saldañaand even director Jacques Audiard condemned her tweets in interviews. It doesn’t help that Gascón has refused to stay quiet and continued to “apologize” without really acknowledging her mistakes. Oscar voters have actually taken notice; according to Scott Feinberg ofThe Hollywood Reporter, “Based on my conversations in recent days with Academy members, many are going to have a hard time voting forEmilia Pérezinanycategory, given that Emilia Pérez herself has become toxic.”

Karla Sofia Gascon as Emilia Perez

Even the once-surefire lock of Best International Feature Film seems in flux now, also helped by the recent surge of fellow Best Picture nomineeI’m Still Here. All this said, Zoe Saldaña still stands a solid chance at winning Supporting Actress (it helps that she, like Ali withGreen Book, has expertly navigated a deeply uncomfortable circumstance), and there doesn’t seem to be any other true frontrunner for Original Song. So, while it’s too soon to say that its Oscar chances arecompletelydead (the Producers’ Guild, Screen Actors’ Guild, and BAFTA races could also signify the state of the race in the coming weeks), Netflix’s hopes of winning Best Picture seem to have taken yet another hit.Emilia Pérezis streaming onNetflix.